Main News

 

Risk of bank defaults rises
The cost to bond investors of insuring against a default on debt issued by big investment banks has climbed in the past week after more bad news on writedowns and fears of future losses.
http://mail2.efnmail.co.uk/r/321569/MTk4MTI1OjE1NDkx/

 

Pandemic test undertaken by financial services paints dire scenario
Computerworld Oct. 24, 2007
If a pandemic strikes the U.S., it will kill about 1.7 million people, hospitalize 9 million, exhaustantiviral medications and reduce basic food supplies, according to a planning scenario developed by financial service firms preparing for such a catastrophe. A U.S. pandemic would exhaust antiviral medications, reduce basic food  supplies, put...
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7408&m=29780

 

Assets in 130/30-type strategies climbed 77% in the six months ended Sept. 30, topping $53 billion from $30 billion six months ago, according to a survey conducted by Pensions & Investments.And...

 

Lured by the prospect of billions of institutional dollars coming up for grabs in the next couple of years, hedge fund managers are eyeing 130/30 strategies.While a few launched 130/30 strategies ...

 

Merrill Woes Suggest Trouble for U.S. Economy
A larger-than-expected write-down by Merrill Lynch has options traders buying puts across the financial services sector.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119317405079968867.html?mod=djemBF

 

THE OUTLOOK, By Bob Davis
The rise of sovereign-wealth funds in Asian nations is prompting a new effort to make sure governments don't wield the funds as financial weapons.
http://online.wsj.com/article/the_outlook.html?mod=tct

 

The Extreme Risk Of Terrorism Insurance, With Or Without A U.S. Government Backstop
The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) will expire on Dec. 31, 2007, and the debate on Capitol Hill is already well under way. As of this writing, two bills are moving through Congress, but we believe it will take substantial hard work by both houses of Congress to compile a bill that stands a good chance of being signed. TRIA has made terrorism insurance far more obtainable than it was in the months after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, when coverage had almost completely dried up. However, the risk of terrorism is still volatile and global, and coverage for it hasn't yet found marketwide acceptance.
To learn more, click or copy and paste the URL below:
(subscription required)
http://standardandpoors.rsys1.net/servlet/cc5?kHiQYTAUQTVsLgHxhilpuHQJhuV2VR

 

U.S. Weekly Financial Notes: Roctober
The housing market continues to look rocky. Housing remains the major problem for the economy, accounting for all of the slowdown in real GDP growth over the past four quarters. The past week's data continued the string of negative reports, showing weakness in both new and existing home sales. Existing-home sales fell to an annual rate of 5.04 million units in September, down 8% from August and 19.1% from a year earlier. The level is the lowest in the eight-year history of the series.
To learn more, click or copy and paste the URL below:
http://standardandpoors.rsys1.net/servlet/cc5?kHiQYTAUQTVsLgHxhilpuHQJhuV2VW

 

 <http://www.hedgefund-index.com/newsriskarb.asp> United States: When M&A And National Security Don't Mix
Source: Mondaq
An act recently passed in Congress, intended to tighten controls on foreign capital inflows, could derail your best-laid deals.

 

GLOBAL - Diversification in the market has lead to convergence as traditional managers look to out perform alternatives according to a study by KPMG and CREATE-Research.

 

The happy couple
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the incumbent's wife, wins Argentina's presidential election
Full article

 

Mitsubishi UFJ Stung By US Subprime Exposure
Forbes - NY,USA
Japan's biggest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, revealed Monday that its losses in the US subprime mortgage market had ballooned to 30 billion yen ...
See all stories on this topic

 

The Blow Up - Technology Review cover story

 

 

Monday , 29 Oct 2007
Anglo American’s Cynthia Carroll outranks even media giant Oprah Winfrey on Forbes’ “100 Most Powerful Women List.” But, does she have what it takes to get Alaska’s Pebble project permitted?

 

Electricity is the invisible commodity. But it's now in the limelight. Energy infrastructure has been labeled inadequate and ill-prepared to enable American businesses to compete in a global economy. While it may be an eye-opening idea, the difficulties in pushing ahead remain formidable.

Full Story...

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Yield Curve Corner

 

Market Needs A Bernanke Treat
Forbes - NY,USA
The fed funds futures market points to another 25-basis-point rate cut, and if Bernanke's coterie doesn't deliver, the market is certain to endure some ...
See all stories on this topic

 

All Eyes on the Fed Ben Bernanke and officials must weigh murky economic data. Read More

 

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Natural Disaster Corner

 

Climate Prediction  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/predictions.php

World Meterological Organization http://severe.worldweather.org/

Tornadoes: http://www.disastercenter.com/tornado.htm

Great Sat Pictures of events: http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCnoel302_G12.jpg

 

Fires in Hawaii http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/FSHShawaii302_MO.jpg

 

Tropical Storm Noel prompts flood warning
CNN - USA
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Noel, which formed Sunday, could dump eight to 12 inches of rain on the Dominican Republic, Cuba, ...
See all stories on this topic

 

Most of us (especially us Brits, it seems) like to talk about the weather. We listen avidly to weather forecasts on the TV or radio and plan our day accordingly, often later cursing when it turns out that the forecast was wrong, as usual!

Full Story...

 

Climate is too complex for accurate
predictions
NewScientist.com news service Oct. 25, 2007
*************************
Climate change models, no matter
how powerful, can never give a
precise prediction of how greenhouse
gases will warm the Earth, according
to a new study by University of
Washington scientists. Finite
research dollars invested in ever
more sophisticated climate models
offer very little marginal benefit
to decision makers, says Roger
Pielke, a...
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7405&m=29780

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Iranian Situation

 

US: Iran seeks nuclear weapons
AFP via Yahoo! News Mon, 29 Oct 2007 10:38 AM PDT
The United States on Monday brushed aside the UN nuclear watchdog agency chief's warning that there was no proof Iran seeks atomic weapons, and invited him to stay out of diplomacy with Tehran.

 

Iran navy in suicide attack pledge
CNN.com Mon, 29 Oct 2007 8:58 AM PDT
An Iranian naval commander Monday said his forces are willing to carry out suicide missions when facing enemy forces in the Persian Gulf, according to Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency.

 

Iran alarmed by mass dolphin deaths
AFP via Yahoo! News Mon, 29 Oct 2007 5:53 AM PDT
The mysterious "mass suicide" of 152 dolphins washed up on Iran's coast over the past month has alarmed environmentalists, with the blame pointed at regional fishing practices, officials said on Monday.

 

IRAN, SYRIA:  Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and his Syrian counterpart, Walid al-Moualem, discussed the Iraqi-Turkish border tensions and other regional developments at a meeting during Mottaki's daylong visit to Syria. Afterwards, Mottaki met with Syrian President Bashar al Assad, but his scheduled meeting with Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Shara was canceled.

 

U.N. Backs Iran's Claim on A-Bomb
BY ELI LAKE - Staff Reporter of the Sun
WASHINGTON — As the West steps up its economic pressure on Iran, the United Nations' atomic watchdog is saying there is no evidence Iran's enrichment of uranium is intended for a nuclear weapons program. Speaking on CNN on Sunday, the director...

 

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Opalesque’s Corner

 

- UBS passes MAN Group as largest hedge FoF
- A `superleague` of hedge fund managers is seizing an ever greater proportion of inflows into the sector
- Opalesque Exclusive: Exploring the FoHFs universe (part 4) - How to outperform in the current industry and market cycle, recommendations
- Opalesque Exclusive: OECD releases paper on pension fund investment in hedge funds, Report by Create-Research and KPMG: Pension funds want `something they can understand that delivers good results`
- CalSTRS seeks alternative investments advisors for $13.7 billion portfolio as Cambridge, Altius contracts expire, Pension funds in need of talent open wallets to get investment gurus, Pension plans play catch-up
- Och-Ziff plans $1.19 billion IPO, following Blackstone, Pzena
- The Einhorn Agenda I
- Chicago FoF clears way for banks to invest cash from their own balance sheets into alternatives, Electris Asset Management to start Emissions fund,  Kempner, Centerbridge named manager of the year, Former SAC quant specialist Neil Chriss preps hedge fund,Pride Investments launches new H-share fund,  MPC success bucks hedge fund trend, new fund launch takes AUM to $3 bil, Dexion and JC Clark to launch Canadian hedge fund, Mercer backs LDI work with new funds, Permal to exploit modern Silk Road in new FoFs, Philadelphia`s traditional asset management shop to start environmental FoHFs, Dynamite F3 launch moved to December, Fauchier FoHFs to raise extra assets through new shares
- Currency hedge funds up 1.4% In September - Parker Index energy performs best
- GLG Climate fund to be sold to public through Branson`s Virgin Money, IMF workshop on climate change and the global economy
- Commodities: The invisible commodity now in the limelight, FT report: Commodities` popularity may affect returns
- NY mortgage hedge fund creates off-balance-sheet vehicle to survive mortgage bonds mark-downs, Report: Keep away from commercial property, Property undervalued
- O`Neal poised to step down at Merrill, Comment: Merrill needs an outsider to succeed O`Neil
- Portrait: Halcyon`s John Bader, on the road less traveled
- Survey: Women face struggle in financial world
- AbCap Update: Homm`s abrupt exit raises regulators` interest,  penny stock investments commingled with personal holdings, fraud?, Shareholders will demand investigation into Absolute funds strategy, Investors in Absolute Capital`s 4 funds agree to keep capital in until Nov. 08
- Legal News: Julian Robertson in Tiger trademark dispute, Bayou investors ask judge to reserve part of seized $100m, BP to pay a total of $303m to settle charges of manipulation and attempted manipulation in propane market
- Latin American Roundtable on Corporate Governance launches initiative/white paper to promote more active institutional investors, corporate governance
- Q & A on MIFID, Mifid heralds a new era of opportunity, BATS trading platform eyes European markets in the wake of Mifid
- Dutch Pension funds called to support home-grown HFs
- ECMs of emerging Europe are a welcome source of business for investors
- Comment: Emerging market equities the only choice in the face of increasing moral hazard, says GMO chairman, Comment: Asia`s links with the US have become stronger, not weaker
- Asian companies are still bullish about M&A activity
- Q & A on China`s new leadership
- Survey: South African hedge funds` AUM up $1.6 billion
- Activist News: National Fuel tussles with hedge fund
- News Briefs: Bernanke `reluctant` to cut rates, may end up doing so anyway, M-Lec banks stand to make billions, Lazard history takes FT book award, MFA to publish new Sound Practices for Hedge Fund Managers guide on Nov. 5th, UBS loses investor confidence, down between CHF600  and CHF800 mil, JC Flowers may bid for Northern Rock,  One in three Northern Rock staff face axe, Russia cracks list of top 20 exchanges as volumes rise,  DGCX to start trading in steel futures, DIFX plans to list Islamic structured products,  Franklin Templeton launches 38 new funds in Singapore
- ...And finally: Bizarre church bulletin messages
- Logon: http://www.opalesque.com/main.php?act=archive

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Misc. Items of Interest

 

Russia's Race for the Arctic and the New Geopolitics of the North Pole
Washington, DC
October 25, 2007
Event Video

 

The Kremlin's useful idiots
Our correspondent meets yet another bearded Brit
Full article

 

New York Times: The Federal Communications Commission, hoping to reduce the rising costs of cable television, is preparing to strike down thousands of contracts this week that gave individual cable companies exclusive rights to provide service to an apartment building, the agency's chairman says.

DEFENSE RELATIONS: LONDON LOOKS TO ASHGABAT

On October 21 London refocused British diplomatic efforts in Central Asia from Kazakhstan to Turkmenistan. The Turkmen state news agency publicized a visit to Ashgabat by an official from the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), wrongly suggesting this was the FCO’s director for Russia and Central Asia. Still, the visit by Niall Cullens, a middle-ranking official, indicates the growing level of UK government interest in Turkmenistan. In reality, this was intended to be low key-visit to explore the potential to forge cooperation with the post-Niyazov regime.

Cullens held meetings with members of Turkmenistan’s parliament, Foreign Ministry, Ministry of Oil and Gas and Mineral Resources, the presidential State Agency for the Management and Use of Hydrocarbon Resources, the State Commission for Fighting Drug Addiction, as well as the National Democracy and Human Rights Institute, also under the president of Turkmenistan. His fact-finding mission also involved contacts with other diplomatic missions and international organizations accredited to Ashgabat (www.gundogar.org, October 22). It served to establish that London’s main interests in Turkmenistan are energy, potential counter-narcotics cooperation, and the promotion of democracy and human rights.

The UK is interested in evaluating the possibilities for future defense cooperation with Ashgabat. On October 23 Andrew Lee, commander of an air force department and a military communications officer from the UK Ministry of Defense, arrived in Turkmenistan. The pro-government Turkmenistan.ru website portrayed the visit positively, noting the presence of a “high-profile” British defense official holding talks at the Foreign, Interior, and Defense Ministries (Turkmenistan.ru, October 23). Sources in Ashgabat described the purpose of these talks, as developing a “partnership” between the UK and Turkmenistan in defense relations. This is a surprising, if not unrealistic, concept, given the current difficulties confronting UK defense diplomacy in Central Asia. There has been no progress toward reviving the defense cooperation that existed with Uzbekistan before 2005; closer relations with Kazakhstan have produced mixed achievements; and limited progress with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, although some tangible signs of advances are evident in border security and de-mining training. Each Central Asian state that has forged defense relations with London in recent years continues to enjoy close defense and security cooperation with Russia. Although defense cooperation has remained relatively unscathed between the UK and Russia since the downturn in bilateral relations, the troubled security relations between Moscow and London have had a bearing on the thinking and willingness in each Central Asian capital to enter into closer relations with the UK in these sensitive areas.

Assessing the prospects for defense cooperation with Turkmenistan involves careful analysis of the scope and strict limits of any such arrangements. In particular, Ashgabat has yet to prioritize the key areas for its defense reform. This process, if it is underway at all, most certainly remains at a very early and vulnerable stage. Western countries can have only limited roles to play in helping Turkmenistan to improve its defense capabilities, and domestic government pronouncements on the subject inspire little confidence.

On October 23 Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdimukhamedov chaired a meeting of his Cabinet of Ministers. Military and security officials briefed Berdimukhamedov on the performance of the security forces and their present needs. Predictably, after noting Turkmenistan’s neutral status, a positive assessment of the armed forces was coupled with an equally glowing report on the performance and capabilities of the other security agencies in Turkmenistan, described generically as, “performing their duties well in maintaining public order and also strengthening the country's defense capacity.”

Berdimukhamedov did admit that his country needs military reform, but his public remarks only served to confirm that he has no concept of what this entails, much less what must be reformed and for what purposes. He began well, highlighting logistics as an area for improvement, but then turned to superficial changes such as new uniforms, not usually a burning issue for presidents to solve. “The new uniform should first of all be of modern design, smart, and also should meet national traditions,” Berdimukhamedov noted (Turkmen TV Altyn Asyr, October 23).

While it may be possible to argue that the British visit was ill-timed, there is evidence to suggest that Western countries could be in a position to offer Ashgabat defense assistance. Turkmenistan’s decision to host a UN center for preventive diplomacy for the Central Asian region in the capital, scheduled to be inaugurated on the country's Neutrality Day, December 12, indicates that it may be considering a new era in cooperation with Western states. Arguably, Putin got there first, securing the agreement of the Caspian littoral states not to allow their territories to be used for any future U.S. military attack on Iran, a position entirely consistent with its neutral status. Ashgabat, on the other hand, may demonstrate some level of interest in the theme of defense links with the UK, in order to at least to promote and foster its energy interests. With Russian official rhetoric consistently scathing toward British foreign policy, Moscow’s Central Asian neighbors will prove cautious in their defense dealings with London. Moreover, while pursuing bilateral defense relations with the Central Asia states, London has been slow to recognize its declining security influence within the region, which instead of leading to new, piecemeal bilateral arrangements with yet another country in the region could have provided an incentive to formulate an overall strategy for engagement in the region.
--Roger McDermott

Lack of sleep is a lot like mental
illness
NewScientist.com news service Oct. 26, 2007
*************************
Brain activity associated with
psychiatric illness has been
observed in healthy people who
missed a single night's...
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=7412&m=29780

 

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Funnies, Facts, Quotes, etc….

 

terminus TUR-muh-nuhs, noun:

1. The finishing point; the end.
2. A boundary; a border; a limit.
3. A post or stone marking a boundary.
4. Either end of a railroad or other transportation line; also, the station house, town, or city at that place.

 

Funny Business
(washingtonpost.com)

 

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Conference, Courses, Books, Papers

 

Great Research Sites:

 

Merrill Lynch research Link to full report including important disclosures see example

 

John Mauldin’s Weekly Analysis

 

James Altucher’s Website:

 

Other useful sites:

 

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Index Corner

 

The CSFB/Tremont Hedge Fund Index www.hedgeindex.com.

The Cogent Dynamic Averages http://www.cogenthedge.com/home/inv_strategy.asphttp://www.cogenthedge.com/home/inv_strategy.asp

The Dow Jones Indices: http://www.djhedgefundindexes.com/index.cfm?event=viewPremiumContent (free registration)

HFRX Indices https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/hfrx_reg/index.php?fuse=login&1170880431

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Regulatory Info

 

 

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Disclaimer

 

The information contained in this document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell any security or other type of vehicles to or by anyone in any jurisdictions, nor should it be regarded as a contractual document. Under no circumstances should the information provided on this document be considered as financial advice, or as a sufficient basis on which to make investment decisions. The information contained herein has been gathered by Investor DNA, LLC from sources deemed reliable as of the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy or completeness is given. Investor DNA, LLC is not responsible for and provides no guarantee with respect to any of the information provided herein or through the use of any hypertext link. Past results are no indication of future performance. All information in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or accounting advice. All materials are the property of the respective publishers, as referenced by header and appropriate hypertext links.